Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Whither Singles Ministries?

In my last post, I wrote:

the social space in which a non-college-educated woman (for instance) can be courted by a college-educated professional man is much smaller than it perhaps once was.

I started to add that one such social space remaining would be church singles ministries. These usually take the form of age-bracketed Sunday school classes, often specifically advertised as catering to unmarried people. I met my own wife in one such class at a large mainline church in a city Out West and have no regrets.

But I noted some time ago that this church no longer offers such classes. I did a quick check among the larger local Protestant Evangelical churches I knew about (at least one of which is famous enough that you, too, have heard of it), yet found only one that advertised a singles ministry (for 30- and 40-somethings). My RC friends have reported a similar decline in single's ministries for Roman Catholics. What's going on?

Has online dating really sucked dry the market for IRL social spaces? Perhaps all single people today believe the advantages of online dating (large pool of participants, limited personal exposure prior to date commitment) outweigh the costs (Tinder screening factors, date commitment necessary to meet and interact).

Perhaps it reflects the desires of women, or at least of those with the loudest voices. Putting single men and women together inevitably means the former will approach the latter. No doubt some women want to be approached, but it may be difficult for those women to express this against women who do not want to be approached, or for whom being approached by the wrong men or in the wrong way is an intolerable social cost. I expect their complaints would find a receptive ear among the church leaders, older men who met and married their wives in a different age, men who accpet uncritically the claim that today's low marriage rates are wholly the fault of men for their failure to meet women's expectations.

Monday, November 23, 2020

The Bad Decision Handbook

I finished reading Privilege Lost: Who Leaves the Upper Middle Class and How They Fall, Jessi Streib's qualitative study of how children enter downwardly mobile econimic trajectories. It is based on in-depth interviews conducted as part of the "National Survey of Youth and Religion".

The book is badly written, and it's analytical framework is weak and repetitive. Streib wants to explain downward mobility as a function of two factors:

  • Weakness in "inherited resources", here listed as money and academic and institutional knowledge.

  • Identity, falling into one of seven categories, and itself often a function of resource weakness.

The work virtually ignores any consideration of individual intelligence or those qualities of the Five Factor Model that most predict academic and professional success: emotional stability and contientiousness. Instead, Streib relies entirely on the interviewees' own account of their backgrounds and interior lives. This leads to some pretty hilarious incongruities. My personal favorite is the account of "Virginia", introduced in the chapter on the "stay-at-home mother" identity:

Virginia was raised in such a family [that emphasized traditional gender roles] and in a conservative space -- in a variety of red states and by secular parents who spent their formative years as members of conservative religions. Her father earned a high income, but from Virginia's perspective, he was rarely home. When he was home, Virginia tried to learn about the workforce from him, but he did not engage. Virginia explained: "I really wish that he was more vocal, that he would talk about more things . . . ." Virginia was much closer to her mothther, but she could not play this role in Virginia's life. Having dropped out of college to beocme a stay-at-home mom, Virginia's mother never entered the professional workforce or gained the knowledge associated with it.

We then read about Virginia's efforts to navigate the course of her teenage years:

Virginia . . . did not use school to prepare for college and work. Instead, she considered school a holding zone and a romantic zone. Regarding the former, she saw school as the process of "sitting in a classroom learning stuff I don't care about." At the same time, she met her first boyfiriend in high school and enjoyed speding time with him at school. Yet, after Virginia's boyfriend slept with her best friend while Virginia was passed out, drunk, on the other side of the room, Virginia returned to seeing school as a holding zone.

So . . . it's pretty clear there are other problems here than just Virginia's stay-at-home mother identity.

To give Streib some partial credit, I will allow that, however worthwhile being a stay-at-home mother is as a lifestyle choice for those women to whom the opportunity is offered, as a career plan it may be poorly suited as a method of "class reproduction". As Streib points out, most professional class people marry other professional class people, and the social space in which a non-college-educated woman (for instance) can be courted by a college-educated professional man is much smaller than it perhaps once was.

But it might also be true that stay-at-home mother is defined by more than just resource weaknesses. It may be that the track requires its own set of resource strengths. For instance, it may mean not getting blind drunk at parties, not having slutty girlfriends, not dating men living the kind of lives -- or living such a life yourself -- where no-strings-attached sex is A Thing. There may be something about Virginia's background -- having adopted a "conservative" life-goal without having herself internalized any of the conservative values that would support such an ambition -- that is especially likely to end poorly.

Virginia's were not the only bad decisions made by Streib's collection of interviewees, perhaps not even the worst. The subjects adopting the "rebel" identify, and those described as "explorers", by which Streib means those who maintain several competing identities, often including "rebel", were especially self-destructive in their choices. Others' were merely sad: for instance, the decision by a perfectly capable and energetic young woman to try to become a writer for television shows without deep family connections in that industry. It is the counter-example of these stories, and not Streib's analysis, in which the real strength of the book lies.

Sunday, October 04, 2020

The Ethics of Salesmanship

In yesterday's post I compared Stefan Molyneux's ethical worldview (hereafter simply philosophy), as expressed in his novel The God of Atheists, to the Old Testament Law. On reflection, this isn't really fair to the Old Testament. Whatever its demands, the Old Testament provided a set of bright-line rules such that you could be pretty sure whether or not you had broken one. But it was often difficult for me to predict which of the characters would be judged guilty of ethical lapses by philosophy. (Short answer: most of them.) Spoilers follow.

The early pleasure in reading TGoA was the depth of Molyneux's entry into the interior lives of his characters, the rich detail with which he describes both their internal motivations and the complexity of the personal and professional situations in which they live and work. His description of Middle School politics was spot-on, for instance, his revelation of the utter cynicism with which the project of starting a "boy band" is undertaken was laugh-out-loud funny, and his characterization of the upper-middle-class economy was biting and incisive. Molyneux writes with real insight, I believe, into the ways people behave and then deceive themselves about it. More prosaically, I learned a lot from him about the mundane worlds he writes about, such as investing, finance and commercial software development. Even the sex scene, which I earlier described as paint-by-numbers, had I will freely admit those numbers exactly right. This, for once, is in favorable contrast to Ayn Rand, whose novels I have been informed are populated by caricatures.

The problem is that all the richness of his characters starts to recede as they turn to philosophy. The three children -- Stephen, Sarah, and Alice -- the description of whose peer culture and their roles within it had me nodding in recognition, slowly become something with which I completely lost any identification. Stephen, the professor's son, begins his descent into philosophy by asking, "Are my parents happy?" What child does this? I didn't. I don't even do it now, not in any existential sense; I am content to accept everyone's presentation at face value. Come to think of it, I don't really stop to ask myself whether I am happy, only thanking God every day for such blessings I have. That is enough. Similarly, all the children demand to know why their mothers stay married to their fathers. Short of what must be an extremely high threshold of domestic violence, what child sniffs at her parents' marriage, "not ethical", and believe divorce would improve anyone's happiness?

As I mentioned in the last post, it was Stephen's father's crime, undertaken with malice aforethought, of driving Gordon to drop out of college and then writing up Gordon's thesis proposal as his own, that struck me as the most obvious. But the second most obvious crime was when Justin, the elder son of another of the families, willfully destroys the prospects of his incipient boy band with a profanity-laced tirade during its first live television appearance. This occurs in the middle of what the reader will recognize as a bout of depression, but which Molyneux attributes to a troubled conscience.* Fair enough. But the consequences were devastating, taking with them the fortunes of the third family, whose elder son Ian was also a member of the band and whose father Al was its producer and agent. Justin is the one character in the novel given something of a redemption arc by his embrace of philosophy, yet in the final chapter, while he admits to Ian that Ian may be justified in hating him, Justin never actually repents, nor even apologizes. It is not at all clear that Molyneux even recognizes Justin's action, betraying the trust and hope of everyone who had invested their money, time, and energy into the project, as even wrong.

At the other extreme, Molyneux presents Terry, the lead programmer hired fresh-out-of-college by Dave, a tech entrepreneur and Justin's father. Terry labors heroically at low pay** to meet the commitments his boss makes to their customers. He's the one character who presents as fundamentally decent, yet even he comes under the children's judgment for (and I'm half-guessing here) learning on the job? Not knowing that most of Dave's previous ventures had failed? Not quitting when a parent company bungled the stock options? Not appreciating the extent to which that stock was overvalued? That's a lot of expectation to lay at the feet of any one person, as he himself says when the children confront him. Like I said, Molyneux doesn't straw-man his counter-arguments.

Dave and Al represent middle cases. Dave is guilty of a range of petty graft as he struggles to maintain his family's upper-middle-class facade, but his primary failure is being out of his management depth, making promises to investors and clients both that, while not bald-faced lies exactly, are backed up more by hope and wishful thinking than experienced, hard-headed realism. Al, the talent agent for musical groups, seldom shepherds them to wild success. Both of them are in a sense salesmen whose primary product is neither music nor software but risk. They offer investors/musicians the opportunity of wealth/fame at the risk of loss. Both of them share in that risk (in Dave's case, more than he knew), but that is not enough. Molyneux to his credit, is trying to make a valid ethical point about how such opportunities should be offered appropriately, but on the strength of the novel I can't say I know where the ethical line actually is. Dave is clearly over it, but Al? His son Ian says at the end, "My dad f*cks people for a living." I read nothing that justifies that assessment. I expect most musicians are eager for any shot they might have to get paid for doing what they love. Al provides them that shot.

Professional ethics are a serious subject, and most professions take it seriously. The engineering department at which I taught covered it, as does the FE exam. But I'm not sure that philosophy is any help. Towards the end, Gordon-the-sock-puppet sneers at the prospect of developing an "Ethics in Accounting" course: "the basics", he calls it, "what people should already know." Maybe. But maybe not.

* I think. There were a few passages that, while I admired them for their florid prose style, were substantively incomprehensible. Justin's depression was described for an entire chapter in clinical detail, yet at the end I still couldn't summarize what it was all about.

** I'm not sure when the novel is set, but it was published in 2007. Justin's salary is given at $40K, which hasn't been the median starting salary for a tech professional since the mid-nineties.

Saturday, October 03, 2020

The Hell of Atheists

I kicked in, as I generally try to kick in to de-platformed creators and organizations, to Stefan Molyneux when he was thrown off YouTube on trumped-up charges of something-or-other, and decided to try to get my money's worth by reading his epic novel, The God of Atheists, or rather listening to his own dramatic reading of same. The book is the tale of three families whose lives intersect in various ways, most poignantly by the friendship of their three middle-school-aged children, against the backdrop of technology, music, academia, ambition, and ultimately destruction. With Molyneaux's voice providing the nuance, I was captivated throughout all 25 hours. The novel bears a similarity to Atlas Shrugged both in the scope of its philosophical ambition and in the content of its premises. And indeed, I would compare it to Ayn Rand's magnus opus in quality as well.

Except . . . I never actually read Atlas Shrugged. Whittaker Chambers innoculated me against whatever interest I might have had in Objectivism, and with any providence I will likewise cure you, my half-dozen readers, of any interest in whatever this is. Spoilers will follow.

I was vaguely aware from having watched his videos that Molyneux was an unbeliever -- he has counseled religious people on his YouTube show without remarking on it, for instance -- but I was surprised at the depth of his hostility. Molyneaux is an atheist, not in the gentle personally-not-persuaded manner of Scott Adams*, but of the dogmatic tub-thumper variety of Christopher Hitchens. Yet the moral universe he creates is every bit as uncompromising as the Old Testament law and every bit as terrifying as a Jonathan Edwards sermon. But in this world, there is no hope. No faith. No love.

Which is ironic. Molyneux believes with Hitchens that Christianity is child abuse, scaring them with a God who will punish them for sin. But in Molyneux's telling the living damnation that awaits those who come up short is just as real, just as scary. Indeed, it scared me. Except the point of "Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God" is to frighten us into God's grace and mercy. But here there is neither grace nor mercy, only wrath and judgment.

No relationship is free from this judgment. Not the relationship between parents and children; the novel revolves around the three children's condemnation and ultimate rejection of their parents for their moral failings. Molyneux himself was horribly abused by his single mother when he was a child, which experience probably informs his understanding of that relationship, or lack thereof. But these were not abusive parents. Indeed, to my reading they seemed to meet the parenting expectations of their class, but that doesn't matter. Molyneux is explicit about this: one of his characters specifically renounces any loyalty to parents when they are not "good people". Nor escapes the relationship between husband and wife; one of the marriages are held to be worthless, and one ends in divorce, but again not because of mistreatment. Molyneux demands we ask ourselves why our spouses love us. There is sex -- a chapter's worth in clinical detail -- but it is paint-by-numbers and without passion. No, the shortcomings which break relationships were abstract-ethical, and the standards exacting; everything is subordinated to Molyneux's ethical judgements.

There are no heroes in this novel, not really. In this, Molyneux strays from Rand; whatever else you may say about them, the "operatic businessmen" of Atlas Shrugged are held up as role-models for the readers. But Molyneux's sock puppets -- the three children and a philosophy graduate student named Gordon -- are notable for not being required to make any decisions, ethical or otherwise. In fact, one of the other characters points this out to them. To his credit, Molyneux generally "steel-mans" his counter-arguments, sometimes even to the point of making them more persuasive than what Molyneux himself asks us to believe. (Molyneux elsewhere straw-mans his religious counter-arguments, but this work is mercifully free of any religious characters through whom Molyneux would be tempted to embarrass himself.)

At times, Molyneux expounds a specific inversion of Christian theology. For example, Molyneux says something along the lines of, "the only people who believe in forgiveness are those who have done wrong." Well, yes: that is pretty much the point of the Parable of the Unmerciful Servant; given the ten thousand talents we owe to God, we should be lenient with those who owe us the days wages. That's all of us.

The strange thing about this, and also in noted contrast to Rand, is that Molyneux never actually gets around to making any arguments for the ethics he believes in; the novel is merely parasitic on the values he assumes we share. One of the family patriarchs, a philosophy professor, tries to explain the ethics of honesty to the three children -- and fails at it miserably. Which is sort of the point: the professor is bad at his job, and his subsequent academic corruption is the one act of unmitigated immorality on which I had the firmest traction. But for all the fulminations against dishonesty, not one of the other characters undertakes to develop an ethics of truth from first principles. Which is just as well. I remember, listening with my daughter to the professor flail ineffectually, remarking to her: I'm glad I can just believe the Bible. Because without God, we are none of us more that chimpanzees with a slightly-better evolved adaptation to punish defectors. All the rest of it, all the philosophy, is so much post-facto rationalizing. And good luck to it: seriously, if you can't believe in God, then please cobble something together that keeps you from being a total d*ck.

But I, personally, can't help you. Judge for yourselves whether whatever-this-is leaves us richer or poorer. For myself, as with Atlas Shrugged, The God of Atheists drives me and any even modestly self-aware reader fleeing in mortal terror to the arms of Christ.

* In fairness, I am only familiar with Adams' thougths on religion from his YouTube videos. He has not, to my recollection, written about them in any of his books I have read. If he elsewhere has shown hostility to Christianity, I am unaware of it.

Sunday, September 13, 2020

Fake Fossils? Or Just Fake News?

Regarding the normally-smart comic strip Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal:

This is at least the second cartoon SMBC has run on what is apparently a thought-cliché: (some) Christians believe that dinosaurs never existed and the archeological evidence to the contrary was contrived by Satan to trick humanity into believing in evolution.

Except . . . I went DuckDuckGoing about trying to find a source for this and came up empty. I found plenty of (presumably atheist) websites making this claim about Christians, and plenty of Christian websites refuting or disavowing it. I found not one attributable Christian source making this claim (although I was momentarily taken in by the parody site "Landover Baptist"). I found not one by-name attribution among the accusers.

That said, it's a big country. It's probable that everything that could be said has probably been said by somebody somewhere. In this case, I first heard about this "theory" in 1992-93 from my Orthodox Presbyterian Sunday school teacher, again for the purpose of refuting it. It did not then occur to me to ask him where he had heard it, whether from a Christian expressing such a belief or from a non-Christian claiming a Christian had said it. But in any case, the story pre-dates the internet, which I suppose is a point in favor of its veracity.

So I open this up to my last dozen readers: can anybody trace the origin of this story? An article, speech, book, etc. expressing the belief that dinosaur fossils are the devil's work? Alternatively, the anti-Christian originating the libel? Please let me know in the comments.

Monday, August 17, 2020

Why Academy Prep Schools?

This morning, my daily news summary from Military.com had this headline:

Midshipman Guilty of Sexual Assault Gets 25 years, Dismissed from Service

Which concerned the aborted military career of one Nixon Keago, prior enlisted service Marine Corp, graduate of the Naval Academy Preparatory School, and erstwhile soccer player for the USNA, Annapolis.

Several things point to his being a first-generation American:

  • Soccer is an uncommon sport among black Americans, but hugely popular in Africa.

  • Mr. Keago's appearance strikes me as more African that black American.

  • "Keago" is a Kenyan name, not a typical black American name.

  • "Nixon" is an unlikely first name for a child of native-born parents of any race.

That said, I have not been able to find specific confirmation of immigrant status online, and in any case I would not attach a great deal of significance to this status. While I am of course opposed to immigration, and especially African immigration, it isn't as if Kenyans pose the same level of danger to Americans as do Somali Bantus.

My aggravation right now are the Academy Preparatory Schools: whatever nonsense they may tell us about "enhanc[ing] midshipman candidates' moral, mental, and physical foundations," the reality is that these are last-ditch efforts to get recruited athletes up to college work.

It shouldn't be that hard. While admission to the service academies is intensely competitive, most of the competitiveness is around "leadership potential", of which athletic participation is taken to be a positive indicator. I seem to recall that the "regular" (i.e. non-athlete) admission standard is an 1150 SAT composite; poking around online shows this to be at about the 25th percentile of the USNA. That doesn't strike me as very high. So why go bottom-feeding for students that don't have it?

The answer, of course, is general officer lust for winning sports teams. To them, these athletes' eventual performance as commissioned officers is as beside the point as, say, Baylor's athletes eventual performance at anything requiring knowledge obtained in university.

It's long past time for the service academies to remember why taxpayers foot their bill, return to their core mission, and close the affirmative-action mills for athletes.

Monday, June 29, 2020

Survey Time

Today's email:

On 2 Jun 20, Secretary Barrett, General Goldfein, and General Raymond directed the Department of the Air Force Inspector General to conduct a review into specific racial disparities in the Department of the Air Force. This effort is independent, under the direct authority of the Secretary. The report we produce will tell it like it is. And, once the review is complete, it will be widely and publicly available.

We want to encourage all our enlisted, officer, and civilian Air and Space Professionals to share your experiences and concerns, and we want to empower you to be a part of the solution. Your experiences and perspectives are critical, and your voices will be heard. We have a tremendous opportunity here, please take a few minutes to contribute to this enormously important effort by taking this anonymous, voluntary survey.

A sample:

Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statements:

  • Enlisted, officer, and civilian Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals feel a sense of inclusion, camaraderie, and belonging in my organization.

  • Enlisted, officer, and civilian Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals are comfortable talking about race and ethnic diversity with their colleagues and leadership.

  • My organization values the contributions and ideas of enlisted, officer, and civilian Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals.

  • Enlisted, officer, and civilian Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals have the same opportunities for mentorship, feedback, and role models as others in my organization.

  • Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals are treated differently than other Airmen and Space Professionals in the local community outside of my installation.

It seems that the only honest answer to how anyone else "feels" or what anyone else is "comfortable talking about" would be: How could I know that? I can only answer for myself.

Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statements:

  • In my organization, military Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals receive administrative disciplinary actions (LOCs/LOAs/LORs) more frequently than other Airmen and Space Professionals for the same behavior.

  • I have witnessed supervisors/commanders engage in overt discrimination against military Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals when they give disciplinary action.

  • military Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals are less likely to receive the "benefit of the doubt" in disciplinary actions.

Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statements:

  • My organization provides recognition to enlisted, officer, and civilian Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals on an equal and fair basis as compared to other Airmen and Space Professionals.

  • My organization provides opportunities to promote and to advance enlisted, officer, and civilian Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals on an equal and fair basis as compared to other Airmen and Space Professionals.

  • I have seen bias as it relates to career development opportunities for enlisted, officer, and civilian Black/African American Airmen and Space Professionals.

I'm pretty sure this is the most explicitly biased survey from the Air Force I have ever seen. At least in theory, men, for instance, could also report sexual discrimination and harassment in the multitudinous surveys on that subject. But here only anti-black bias can be reported, not anti-Asian (or anti-Mormon, for that matter) bias.

I certainly would not argue that all Air Force decision-making processes are in some sense metaphysically "fair"; on the contrary, I would assert the opposite. Nor would I maintain that no decision-makers are not biased against blacks (or if you prefer, biased along non-mission-related criteria that correlate with black to their disadvantage). But I would also predict that other decision-makers are both consciously and unconsciously biased in favor of blacks, and that these biases more-or-less cancel each other out overall. But to know this, the Air Force must ask both sets of questions.

Will this survey be the extent of the USAF's "review into specific racial disparities"? It is not implausible (though also not likely) that a careful review of, say, disciplinary actions over which commanders have some discretion might reveal systematic bias against some group or another (as opposed to merely showing that blacks in the Air Force are also more likely to misbehave). But asking people about their beliefs and feelings will only reveal the level of black grievance and entitlement.

You can only find what you look for. You may not find it, but you definitely won't find anything else. Let's suppose