The elementary school here in Φ's lily-white little burg held a straw poll amongst its 1st thru 6th graders. Romney won . . . by two votes. Pedro got a vote, as did "Undecided".
Steve has a lengthy post analyzing election data, including the changing splits for various constituencies between 2008 and 2012 . Some things that jumped out:
The two voting groups with the largest changes in voting split between 2008 and 2012 were Jews and Asians. Neoconservatives have been making a fair amount of noise for a while about how insufficiently pro-Israel Obama is. Whatever you might think about it, this seems as plausible an explanation as any for Romney’s 9% pickup. But to what do we attribute Romney’s 9% loss (from 30% to 21% IIRC) of Asians? Yes, the American electorate has been slowly dividing itself between the White Party and the Non-white Party, and I expect these trends to continue. But I can’t point to any one thing (e.g. the Wen Ho Lee case that precipitated the Asian slide towards the Democrats in 2000) that would provoke so much movement in one cycle. However, I will say this: Romney’s promise to staple green cards to STEM degrees was obvious code for throwing America’s doors open to the Asian hoard. Were it generally true, as the mainstream narrative constantly assures us, that the key to non-white votes is increasing the number of their immigrant co-ethnics, then Romney should have done better among Asians. Obviously, the mainstream narrative is wrong yet again. But I’m still flummoxed by the shift.
Why the falling turnout? I mean, I can give account for why I abandoned the Republicans at the top of the ticket (although I did vote Republican locally), and I understand (though do not agree with) the uninspired voters unwilling to stand in line for an hour to tap the screen for no-hopers like Goode or Johnson. But it beggars the imagination that McCain was more inspiring to Republican voters than Romney! It might be true generally that Palin was more inspiring than Ryan (my 2008 opinion) but, again, I don’t actually know the answer.
I mis-called this election. Notwithstanding my non-support, I expected a Romney win. I was, I think, overly influenced by his late swell in support from highly visible elites. In retrospect, this was largely a function of his increased support among Jews.
That this president, with this record, could win reelection tells me the usual rules don’t apply anymore. Paul Kersey is right: America is going the way of Detroit, a city that continued to return the same black Democrats to power as the city slid into oblivion. Romney offered the country abundant personal magnanimity – if not charisma – and a lengthy track record of executive accomplishment against an affirmative action depressive. His adherence to long-standing Republican Party principles – what few remain of them – appeared to be genuine, more than could be said in 1988. And he ran a disciplined, agile, and well-funded campaign.
Unfortunately, it appears that fewer and fewer votes in America are cast in sensitivity to these kinds of factors, and more and more of them are cast out of reflexive tribal loyalty in hatred of founding-stock Americans.