Thursday, September 10, 2009

Fun Facts about Domestic Violence

Welmer points to a 2007 study on domestic violence by CDC researcher Daniel Whitaker, published in the Journal of Public Health. Here are the results:

Weighted Estimates of Violence Occurrence for Reciprocally and Nonreciprocally Violent Relationships
VariableOverall %Men %Women %
All relationships
- Nonviolent76.180.771.6
- Violent23.919.328.4
Among violent relationships
- Reciprocal49.746.951.5
- Nonreciprocal50.353.148.5
Among cases with nonreciprocal IPV
- Perpetrated by men29.325.132.3
- Perpetrated by women70.774.967.7

A couple of thoughts on this. First, I will happily betray my middle-class innocence by saying that 23.9% sounds like an awfully high number of heterosexual relationships in which violence occurs. But note that the survey questions (“How often in the past year have you threatened your partner with violence, pushed or shoved him/her, or thrown something at him/her that could hurt,” and “How often in the past year have you slapped, hit, or kicked your partner”) include both threats of violence and attempts at violence in the same category as, you know, actual violence. (Though one could argue that the willingness of respondents to characterize mere threats and attempts as "violence" is a measure of their psychological impact.)

The study gives us an idea of the prevalence of actual violence by asking about injury. Again the results:

Weighted Estimates of Injury Occurrence by Reciprocity Status and Perpetrator Gender
VariableInjury occurrency (%)
- Nonreciprocal11.6
- Reciprocal28.4
Perpetrator gender
- Men against women28.8
- Women against men18.1
Gender by reciprocity
- Men against women: nonreciprocal20.0
- Men against women: reciprocal31.4
- Women against men: nonreciprocal8.1
- Women against men: reciprocal25.3

Note that "injury" as used herein refers to a "sprain, bruise, or cut" and, presumably, anything worse. This, I submit, is a minimum threshold for what constitutes actual "domestic violence" as opposed to simple boorishness.

My second thought is: wow, women inflict 70% of the non-reciprocal domestic violence on men! But let's limit our consideration to violence causing injury. Looking at the non-reciprocal violence numbers, my back of the envelope calculation is that (.293)(.2)/[(.293)(.2) + (.707)(.081)] = 51% of non-reciprocal, injury-producing domestic violence is perpetrated by men, leaving the other 49% to be perpetrated by women.

But what about reciprocal violence, i.e. men and women deciding to have at it together? Waving aside, for the moment, whether this constitutes as morally deserving a category as non-reciprocal violence, we see that 31.4% of women in reciprocally violent relationships suffered injury, while only 25.3% of men in reciprocally violent relatonships suffered injury. (Keep in mind that, as the violence was reciprocal, these categories are not mutually exclusive -- no doubt some relationships included injuries to both the man and the woman.)

Looking at the raw numbers, we can combine the categories and see that of the injuries sustained in domestic violence, 55% were suffered by women while only 45% were suffered by men. This isn't as dramatic as the 70% mentioned above, but does illustrate that the popular notion that domestic violence is suffered exclusively by women appears to be a misconception.

A few caveats. First, the study only considers heterosexual couples ages 18 - 28. Second, while the study did include a racially representative sample, racial correlations were evidently not part of the study. (The original data can be downloaded here, I think.)

Finally, the study has only one injury category. It doesn't break out separately those DV victims receiving "the full Rhianna", i.e. victims suffering injuries of sufficient severity to merit either professional medical and/or law enforcement attention.

Still. This study provides a lot of nuance on the question of who perpetrates domestic violence.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Iconography

If Obama's approval numbers weren't cratering, this would be a lot scarier than it actually is:

I predict that the ubiquitous mockery of the Obama seal will be its undoing. But do we have any historical examples one way or the other? For instance, were the Swastika and Hammer & Sickle every exposed (unsucessfully, I take it) to mockery by the opponents of totalitarianism?

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Scott on War

I've been reading Sir Walter Scott's The Lady of the Lake to my nine-year-old daughter over the last couple of weeks. I didn't know the first thing about Scott, but I recently read somewhere that Mark Twain hated him. Since I hate Mark Twain, that was all the recommendation I needed.

Wikipedia has a pretty good synopsis of the story. Last night, we reached the point where Roderick Dhu calls the highland Scots to war. The message reaches a young man in the middle of his own wedding procession:

Yet slow he laid his plaid aside,
And, lingering, eyed his lovely bride,
Until he saw the starting tear
Speak woe he might not stop to cheer;
Then, trusting not a second look,
In haste he sped him up the brook,
Nor backward glanced, till on the heath
Where Lubnaig's lake supplies the Teith
-- What in the racer's bosom stirr'd?
The sickening pang of hope deferr'd,
And memory, with a torturing train,
Of all his morning visions vain,
Mingled with love's impatience, came
The manly thirst for martial fame;
The stormy joy of mountaineers,
Ere yet they rush upon the spears;
And zeal for Clan and Chieftain bring,
And hope, from well-fought field returning,
With war's red honors on his crest,
To clasp his Mary to his breast.
Stung by such thoughts, o'er bank and brae,
Like fire from flint he glanced away,
While high resolve, and feeling strong,
Burst into voluntary song.

"The heath this night must be my bed,
The bracken curtain for my head,
My lullaby the warder's tread,
Far, far from love and thee, Mary:

"To-morrow eve, more stilly laid,
My couch may be my bloody plaid,
My vesper song, thy wail, sweet maid!
It will not waken me, Mary!

"I may not, dare not, fancy now
The grief that clouds thy lovely brow,
I dare not think upon thy vow,
And all it promised me, Mary.

"No fond regret must Norman know;
When bursts Clan-Alpine on the foe,
His heart must be like bended bow,
His foot like arrow free, Mary.

"A time will come with feeling fraught,
For, if I fall in battle fought,
Thy hapless lover's dying thought
Shall be a thought on the, Mary.

"And if return'd from conquer'd foes,
How blithely will the evening close,
How sweet the linnet sing repose,
To my young bride and me, Mary!

Φ: "So, what does this passage say?"

Γ: "Mmmm . . . ."

Φ: "What does the young man think about being called away to war?"

Γ: "He's sad."

Φ: "What else does he think?"

Γ: "He wants fame. He wants to get famous by fighting."

Φ: "Wow, good! You're all over it."

Γ: "But why does he want to fight?"

Φ: "Mmmm . . . . It's something boys do, I guess. If you ever marry a soldier, and he's called away to war, this will probably be his attitude. He'll miss you terribly, but he will hunger for the thrill of combat."

Γ: "But, why would he be called away?"

Φ: "Because his clan calls him! His country calls him."

Γ: "So . . . why are we fighting in Afghanistan?"

Φ: [WTF?!?]

Φ: "Mmmm . . . . That's a good question. I suppose if the president were here, he'd say that we have to civilize the Pashtuns. He'd say we have to teach them democracy and human rights."

Γ: "Well . . . that sounds like a really dumb reason!"

Φ: "Okay, well, let's not ask anymore questions and just listen to the poem."

Monday, September 07, 2009

Obama Youth

Sipsey Street (via Common Reader) comments on the Obama Speech Lesson Plan:

You get the idea.

In 1976, the fall of my 3rd grade year, the school distributed the presidential election issue of the Weekly Reader to all the students. I don't remember what it said, but I remember the pictures: Jimmy Carter at the top with a gleaming smile; below him Gerald Ford, scowling. It wasn't hard to figure out whom we were supposed to support, and indeed I was shocked to discover, upon arriving home, that my mom supported Ford, notwithstanding that he was so obviously mean and crabby.

Returning to the matter at hand: Obama's Speech strikes me as pretty anodyne. It's the usual concoction of pep-talk, half-truths, and useful lies that grownups have been giving students since the dawn of mass education. Without knowing specifically, I would guess that those grownups probably include presidents, although usually they are content making the speech at a local school rather than trying to broadcast it to schools nationwide.

The lesson plan, however, is more problematical. (Note that the links above are to the cleaned-up version put out after the story broke.) It's one thing that the speeches of, say, Lincoln and Roosevelt are fodder for educational hagiography: the controversies surrounding them are long dead, and we discern in retrospect which of them were important and which not. But can anyone point me toward any other instance where a presidential speech was integrated into a school lesson plan at the time it was delivered? Let's look at a few selections from the grade 7-12 version:

  • Teachers may post in large print around the classroom notable quotes excerpted from President Obama’s speeches on education.

  • Teachers may ask students to think of the following:

    • Why does President Obama want to speak with us today?

    • How will he inspire us?

    • How will he challenge us?

    • What resonated with you from President Obama’s speech? What lines or phrases do you remember?

    • Is President Obama inspiring you to do anything? Is he challenging you to do anything?

    • What do you believe are the challenges of your generation?

    • How can you be a part of addressing these challenges?

And from the K - 6 version:

  • Why is it important that we listen to the president and other elected officials, like the mayor, senators, members of congress, or the governor? Why is what they say important?

  • As students listen to the speech, they could think about the following:

    • What is the president trying to tell me?

    • What is the president asking me to do?

    • What new ideas and actions is the president challenging me to think about?

  • After the Speech: Students could discuss their responses to the following questions:

    • What do you think the president wants us to do?

    • Does the speech make you want to do anything?

    • Are we able to do what President Obama is asking of us?

I have a news tidbit for the U. S. Department of Education: Obama's speech isn't actually in the Bible. The man isn't even dead. So maybe we should hold off on the canonization.

UPDATE: Megan links to this story about a speech that Bush '41 gave to the students of Alice Deal JHS in 1991. Back then, the Washington Post and the Democrats (but I repeat myself) characterized the speech as a "media event", a "production", and "carefully staged for the president's political benefit." They even called Congressional hearings to investigate "the expenditure of $26,750 of the Department of Education funds to produce and televise an appearance by President Bush."

Megan criticises "hypocracy on both sides", but I don't see it. The right has not questioned Obama's speech itself; still less have we called for Congressional hearings. Rather, we are objecting to the speech's integration into a lesson plan in a frankly sychophantic way.

Sunday, September 06, 2009

Fun Facts about Jericho, Arkansas

Somehow, when I read Megan's post about Jericho, Arkansas, I just knew what the town's demographics would turn out to be.

UPDATE: Megan commenter Michael Tinkler pointed to an AP story that addressed a question lingering in the back of my mind: why does a town of 184 residents and a median family income of $26K have a 7-man police force? How can they afford it?

Answer: "Sheriff's deputies patrolled Jericho until the 1990s, when the city received [Clinton-era federal] grant money to start its own police force, Martin said."

Is there no end to the mischief?

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

CDO's Explained

Maybe this was already obvious to everyone, but Economics of Contempt (via Megan) provides an outstanding description of what a collateralized debt obligation is, how it worked, and how they contributed to the housing bubble.

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Mad Men

I’m only recently a fan of AMC’s television show Mad Men, which is to say that I picked it up in the middle of the second season. I had watched moments of it in season one but found the story lines too difficult to parachute into. Finally, after reading sufficient fawning commentary, I undertook to devote the effort to learning those story lines anyway. Now I’m hooked.

The catalyst for this post was an argument between Will Wilkinson and Micha Ghertner (Distributed Republic) about the show’s meaning. Wilkinson commented on a Kay Hymowitz post that I myself excoriated when it originally came out. But in the course of disagreeing with it, Wilkinson makes Hymowitz’s argument much more compelling that she herself does:

I think I first saw this kind of argument clearly laid out in Tocqueville. If I remember correctly, he noted that there is a kind of soothing clarity in stratified societies with brightly marked class lines. When classes are stable over generations, and there is little mobility up or down, conventions that govern class relations become settled, making it easy to know how to behave toward those above and below one’s station. Moreover, when classes are fixed and mobility is limited, there is little anxiety about improving one’s position, since there’s so little prospect for doing so. American-style democratic equality creates a pattern of unceasingly stressful striving for relative rank, and all this mobility up and down produces a confusion in manners that can lead to dangerous social frictions and resentments. It becomes too hard to know what to expect of others, or what others expect from us.

This is, as far as I can tell, Hymowitz’s argument about gender relations in the post-feminist era. Women attaining something like social equality with men has created not so much liberation as a kind of toxic confusion. When women are free to be individuals, free to want different things than other women, men can’t be sure what any particular women might want from him. To open the door for her or not!? To pick up the check or not!? To be a nice guy like she says she wants or a bad boy like she really wants?! These unresolved and unresolvable questions have led inevitably to the contemporary condition in which men are either unlovable whining sad sacks or misogynist assholes who cite a cartoon version of Darwinism to justify treating a woman as little more than an upgrade from Jergens and a sock. If we don’t like it, we only have feminism to blame. Or something like that.

Exactly that, actually. Male angst is not the only issue at stake, certainly, nor even the most important one, in and of itself. (More on this later.) But to the extent that I address the issue, this is how I would describe it if I were a better writer than I actually am.

Wilkinson, of course, disputes the point:

But annoyances and disappointments suffered in the process of realizing fundamental conditions of a decent society don’t call into question the desirability of those conditions. All this vexation is a very, very small price to pay for equality. For men, it is a very, very small price to pay for the opportunity to share a life with a peer, a full partner, rather than with a woman limited by convention and straitened opportunity to a more circumscribed and subordinate role in life. Sexual equality has created the possibility of greater exactness and complementarity in matching women to men. That is, in my book, a huge gain to men. But equality does raise expectations for love and marriage. The prospect of finding a true partner, rather than someone to satisfactorily perform the generic role of husband or wife, leaves many of us single and searching for a good long time. But this isn’t about delaying adulthood, it’s about meeting higher standards for what marriage and family should be.

Just about every word in this paragraph is wrong. The equation of “equality” and “decency” is asserted rather than argued, and in our own experience they work at cross purposes. Had Will Wilkinson simply said that the world we have created – easy divorce, confiscatory child-support, affirmative action, sexual harassment laws, etc. – make it easier for a (small) number of ambitious careerists to shape a work environment they find congenial, and left it at that, he would have been on firm ground. That he asserts that anything like a majority of men should like this world is beyond comprehension. There is, quite simply, nothing in it for us. Further, Wilkinson’s assertion that making men and women “equal” allows for greater complementarity is so idiotic that I can’t help but wonder if he even knows what the word means. Oh, but at least we’re “meeting higher standards for what marriage and family should be,” which is why the divorce rate went down over the last forty years, right? Oops, wait, it didn’t.

So what does this have to do with Mad Men?

I think Hymowitz’s story gives too small a part to resentment at the loss of male privilege. Many men aren’t angry and confused because they don’t know what women want. They’re angry because they want what their fathers or grandfathers had, and they can’t get it. They’re confused because they can’t quite grasp why not. I think part of the fascination for many white guys with the show Mad Men is that it is a window into an attractive (to them) world of white male dominance and privilege that has largely disappeared.

It is this paragraph of Wilkinson's on which Micha Ghertner pushes back:

Mad Men displays exactly the opposite of what [Wilkinson] is trying to express.

What I see when I watch Mad Men is a bunch of privileged dominant white males - and their trophy wives - who are absolutely miserable, partly ( largely?) because they can see their privilege and dominance cracking under the weight of inexorable social change.

That's why Peggy seems to creep everyone out except Don, who is too busy trying to juggle all of the various lies he has made to his wife, kids, coworkers, mistresses, and clients to care that Peggy is breaking the glass ceiling, getting impregnated out of wedlock, and doing all of the things a woman of her station in life shouldn't be doing. Don sees himself reflected in Peggy, as a rule breaker and successful social status climber who has to navigate a new, false identity.

No one is truly happy in the show, and we the audience, with the advantage of 50 years of hindsight, know that things are only going to get worse for those characters desperately trying to clutch onto some romanticized, illusory past.

In some sense, Mad Men serves as a Rorschach test: all viewers, both liberal and conservative, can find and in fact have found in the show messages with which they can agree. Wilkinson, I think, nails the source of its appeal for many male viewers. Micha, in turn, correctly discerns the social vectors the show portrays. But Micha makes two errors. First, he asserts that the past the characters are “trying to clutch onto”, as “romanticized and illusory,” which doesn’t make any sense if the characters are actually living it. But the greater error is that the show intends the audience to regard the prefigured social changes as good things.

The pivotal moment, to my mind, of season two occurs during Don Draper’s entanglement with the “jet set”, a group of apparently wealthy practitioners of nearly complete sexual licentiousness. These people, who apparently idle away their days traveling from one vacation spot to another, live a life that we might expect would appeal to Don, a lothario whose adulterous affairs are the show’s most salient feature. But even though Don begins sleeping with a twenty-something girl named Joy, he is horrified by this world. He is horrified that Joy’s father finds them in bed together and doesn’t mind that his daughter is fornicating with a man she just met. He is horrified that Joy thinks nothing of appearing topless (in the pool, admittedly, but still) before the adolescent son of a recently arrived guest. And he is horrified that Joy assures him that, should he join the jet set on their journey to the Bahamas, “he can be with anyone he wants, [Joy] won’t be jealous”. As Joy makes this offer, Don stares into the bottom of the cocktail glass he has just emptied, and makes a discovery: the glass is cracked.

Remember how I wrote about how the show is a Rorschach test? Well, that cracked cocktail glass is the inkblot that crystallizes the show’s message: this world of sexual decadence is not sustainable. Finding that crack symbolizes Don’s realization that the life Joy and her fellow hedonists live, a life into which Don finds himself being drawn, will ultimately collapse, destroying everyone and everything on its way down. And Don doesn’t want that. He doesn’t want a world where the innocence of children is unprotected. He doesn’t want a world in which fathers are indifferent to the chastity of their daughters. And for all the enthusiasm with which he pushes the boundaries of social convention (as he continues to do in season three, evidently), Don doesn’t want a world in which he might someday push on those boundaries only to discover that they aren’t there anymore.

The future that Don sees – the future in which so much of our society is in fact having to navigate – is not one that will last. And it won’t matter that the Wilkinsons and Michas of the world are happy that it is “equal” or “decent” or whatever. They may think that they’ve outsmarted their ancestors. They may believe that the wisdom of the past can be discarded in a generation, that they have truly ushered in the brave new world of free love and unlimited pleasure. But they are wrong. God will not be mocked, and history is littered with the remains of every civilization that has tried.