In short, it’s religion. Barry Kosmin has documented that between 1990 and 2010 Asian Americans have become far less Christian, on average. Meanwhile, the Republican party has become far more Christian in terms of its identity. Do you really require more than two sentences to infer from this what the outcome will be in terms of how Asian Americans will vote?
From Razib’s own numbers:
Let’s predict the vote by weighting these affiliations:
|Wt. R||Wt. D||Wt. I|
That’s not a bad prediction of the 2008 results. But as it happened, Obama received 73% of the two-party vote in 2012, vs. Romney’s 26%. So, no, Razib and HS, you haven’t actually accounted for the 2012 Asian wipeout.
But let’s stipulate for the time being that religious affiliation alone predicts a 3/2 advantage for Democrats among Asians.
Razib’s and Half Sigma’s solution to this problem is the make Republicans “less Christian”. How to go about that?
Well, I suppose one way would be for all the Christians to stop voting for Republican candidates. Now there’s a winning solution . . . .
Or maybe, the Christians could throw their support to a candidate from a religious background they virtually all believe to be heretical at best, and a cult at worst! Oh, yeah, we just did that.
Or maybe the Republicans could run a campaign with fewer religious themes than any campaign since Nixon’s!
No, seriously, Razib is normally a serious thinker, so perhaps he has some conversation starters here that I don’t know about. Half Sigma, on the other hand, proposes that the Republicans demonstrate their repudiation of the Founders’ religion by dropping their quadrennial and increasingly tepid lip-service to maybe someday getting around to doing something about abortion.
Here’s my prediction: the day that happens, 25% of the party walks. Goodbye. I do not predict this from among that 25%: I have already abandoned Republican candidates who only promise to surrender my country to its enemies marginally more slowly than the Democrats. I would, with some sadness, support a pro-abortion candidate that credibly promised an immigration moratorium and repatriation of illegals. But so far, that candidate exists only as a figment of Half Sigma’s imagination.
In the meantime, the churches are full of voters for whom opposition to abortion is the only motivation they have. So, Half Sigma, what, exactly is your plan to make up this 25% with an increased share of Asians and single-mothers-on-welfare? The world wonders . . . .
* I arbitrarily divided Asian Christians equally among evangelicals, mainline protestants, and Roman Catholics.
UPDATE: Razib replies:
[I]t's not my solution, and i've said it elsewhere.
my 'solution' is that the repubs are the white xtian party and the dems are the 'others.' i've stated this elsewhere. i see no better optimum equib. for repubs (or dems) than that right now.