Monday, December 03, 2012

Asian Vote Redux (UPDATED)

Razib (via Half Sigma, natch’) tries to explain the Asian vote:

In short, it’s religion. Barry Kosmin has documented that between 1990 and 2010 Asian Americans have become far less Christian, on average. Meanwhile, the Republican party has become far more Christian in terms of its identity. Do you really require more than two sentences to infer from this what the outcome will be in terms of how Asian Americans will vote?

From Razib’s own numbers:

  R D I Affiliation
Evangelical 56.0% 28.0% 16.0% 14.0%*
Mainline 37.0% 44.0% 18.0% 14.0%*
Catholics 42.0% 41.0% 17.0% 14.0%*
Buddhists 27.0% 56.0% 17.0% 14.0%
Hindus 9.0% 72.0% 19.0% 10.0%
Unaffiliated 21.0% 63.0% 16.0% 26.0%

 

Let’s predict the vote by weighting these affiliations:

  Wt. R Wt. D Wt. I
Evangelical 7.8% 3.9% 2.2%
Mainline 5.2% 6.2% 2.5%
Catholics 5.9% 5.7% 2.4%
Buddhists 3.8% 7.8% 2.4%
Hindus 0.9% 7.2% 1.9%
Unaffiliated 5.5% 16.4% 4.2%
Weighted Average 29.0% 47.2% 15.6%
Two-Party Vote 38.1% 61.9%  

 

That’s not a bad prediction of the 2008 results.  But as it happened, Obama received 73% of the two-party vote in 2012, vs. Romney’s 26%.  So, no, Razib and HS, you haven’t actually accounted for the 2012 Asian wipeout.

But let’s stipulate for the time being that religious affiliation alone predicts a 3/2 advantage for Democrats among Asians.  Razib’s and Half Sigma’s solution to this problem is the make Republicans “less Christian”.  How to go about that?

Well, I suppose one way would be for all the Christians to stop voting for Republican candidates.  Now there’s  a winning solution . . . .

Or maybe, the Christians could throw their support to a candidate from a religious background they virtually all believe to be heretical at best, and a cult at worst!  Oh, yeah, we just did that.

Or maybe the Republicans could run a campaign with fewer religious themes than any campaign since Nixon’s!

No, seriously, Razib is normally a serious thinker, so perhaps he has some conversation starters here that I don’t know about.  Half Sigma, on the other hand, proposes that the Republicans demonstrate their repudiation of the Founders’ religion by dropping their quadrennial and increasingly tepid lip-service to maybe someday getting around to doing something about abortion.

Here’s my prediction:  the day that happens, 25% of the party walks.  Goodbye.  I do not predict this from among that 25%:  I have already abandoned Republican candidates who only promise to surrender my country to its enemies marginally more slowly than the Democrats.  I would, with some sadness, support a pro-abortion candidate that credibly promised an immigration moratorium and repatriation of illegals.  But so far, that candidate exists only as a figment of Half Sigma’s imagination. 

In the meantime, the churches are full of voters for whom opposition to abortion is the only motivation they have.  So, Half Sigma, what, exactly is your plan to make up this 25% with an increased share of Asians and single-mothers-on-welfare?  The world wonders . . . .


* I arbitrarily divided Asian Christians equally among evangelicals, mainline protestants, and Roman Catholics.

UPDATE: Razib replies:

[I]t's not my solution, and i've said it elsewhere.

my 'solution' is that the repubs are the white xtian party and the dems are the 'others.' i've stated this elsewhere. i see no better optimum equib. for repubs (or dems) than that right now.

6 comments:

Razib said...

Razib’s and Half Sigma’s solution to this problem is the make Republicans “less Christian”.

take a course in reading comprehension. that's HS's solution i presume? (from the comments) it's not my solution, and i've said it elsewhere.

my 'solution' is that the repubs are the white xtian party and the dems are the 'others.' i've stated this elsewhere. i see no better optimum equib. for repubs (or dems) than that right now.

Razib said...

oh, i apologize. just noticed you have a ph.d. in engineering :-) so of course reading comprehension is not your strong suit!

heresolong said...

The solution is to convince more of the "others" that freedom actually works. Otherwise we are done.

Dr. Φ said...

Razib: thank you for commenting.

you have a ph.d. in engineering :-) so of course reading comprehension is not your strong suit!

You'd be surprised how many obscurely witten academic papers I had to slog through during the lit review phase of the dissertation writing. A fair fraction written by people with Asian surnames. Just sayin' . . .

But I apologize for having conflated Half Sigma's views with your own.

my 'solution' is that the repubs are the white xtian party and the dems are the 'others.' i've stated this elsewhere. i see no better optimum equib. for repubs (or dems) than that right now.

I, too, have conceded this elsewhere. But this raises the question: since Republicans are substantially winning the Asian evangelical vote and marginally winning the Asian Catholic vote, it appears that, at least for these, religious loyalties are trumping racial ones. Does a Republican move towards "unaffiliated" (whatever that looks like) actually attract non-Christian Asians? Or does it merely leave Asian Christians with only their racial loyalty at stake? I don't actually know, but blithe assumptions about it are ill-advised.

Dr. Φ said...

Heresolong: I'm no longer convinced that "freedom" in the abstract has much of a constituency, even among those who loudly invoke it. So, no, I don't think that Asians or anybody else is going to be much inspired by libertarian slogans about "freedom works."

Razib said...

1) did you read my post in the first place? i specifically was descriptive, not prescriptive. most prescriptive advise is self-serving bullshit anyway. if you're going to represent someone's position, you should at least make an effort.

2) religious, racial, economic, etc., issues all count. i know of very wealthy but very atheist republicans. for these ppl economic matters loom large, especially since they're wealthy from investment income. similarly, very conservative religious christian asians can identify with that aspect of the republican party. marginally religious southern white males can identify with the national-racial aspect of the republican party.